Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Jun 01 2025 09:27:00 ACUS01 KWNS 011252 SWODY1 SPC AC 011251 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ....Central and eastern TX... Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. ....TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association with a weak surface low moving east along the front. ....Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ....South FL... Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term thinking in this area. ....Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ....Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ....Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ...Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .