Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Jun 01 2025 09:27:00 ACUS02 KWNS 010544 SWODY2 SPC AC 010542 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ....Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ....NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ....KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ...Grams.. 06/01/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .