Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sat May 31 2025 16:10:00 ACUS01 KWNS 312000 SWODY1 SPC AC 311958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Large hail and severe outflow gusts remain possible late this afternoon into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the Red River. Isolated strong to severe storms may still occur this afternoon over parts of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region. ....20Z Update... The main changes made to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook were to remove Slight Risk probabilities across the Mid Atlantic, and remove Marginal Risk probabilities across the southern FL Peninsula. Over the Mid-Atlantic, a loosely organized MCS has moved offshore, leaving an overturned airmass in its wake. Though thunderstorms remain possible in this area, buoyancy should be diluted enough to reduce the severe threat to some degree. Similarly, the passage of strong thunderstorms, along with residual cloud cover, will also limit additional thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula, though a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ...Squitieri.. 05/31/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025/ ....KS/OK... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough digging southward across the Dakotas. This feature will approach KS by late afternoon, and track into the southern Plains overnight. Strong heating and steep lapse rates ahead of the trough, combined with increasing large scale ascent, will result in scattered thunderstorms over eastern NE/northern KS with a risk of hail and gusty winds. As this activity moves southward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass, thunderstorm intensification is expected - mainly after dark. Storms will continue southward across southern KS into OK, with a few supercells expected capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storms may persist into the overnight hours across southern OK/north TX. ....DelMarVa... A broad upper trough is present today over the northeast states, with a compact shortwave trough over southwest PA approaching the DelMarVa region. This system will promote afternoon convective development from southeast PA into eastern VA, with storms spreading across eastern MD/DE/southern NJ before tracking offshore. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient westerly mid-level winds suggest the potential for thunderstorm organization and a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Refer to MCD #1054 for further details. ....South FL... A sagging cold front will continue to result in a few strong thunderstorms across south FL this afternoon, capable of locally gusty winds. Refer to MCD #1053 for further details. $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .