Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sat May 31 2025 10:12:00 ACUS02 KWNS 310545 SWODY2 SPC AC 310543 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX... ....SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas. Isolated severe storms are also possible with similar timing over the Carolinas and a portion of the northern Rockies. ....East TX... A compact shortwave impulse near the Ozarks at 12Z Sunday should track southeast across the Lower MS Valley towards the central Gulf Coast. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest to the west-southwest of this wave, a belt of moderate mid-level to strong upper-level northwesterlies is anticipated during the afternoon. With weak low-level winds veering with height, this setup should yield favorable hodograph elongation for supercells. The primary uncertainties are 1) the coverage of afternoon storms and 2) the spatial location for a mesoscale corridor of greater threat. More aggressive guidance appears to develop convection both along a convergent dryline towards the I-35 corridor and eastward within a weak low-level warm theta-e advection regime that is aided by pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across a confined plume of rich western Gulf moisture. While there is spatial and coverage uncertainty, the consensus signal for a few supercells warrants an upgrade to a level 2-SLGT risk highlight. Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds should be the primary hazards before convection weakens after dusk. ....Northern Rockies... In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an upstream, positive-tilt impulse will shift towards the northern Rockies Sunday night. The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front pushing east across much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon Sunday. Primary severe potential is anticipated within a confined corridor over the adjacent high terrain to the west-southwest. This corridor will lie between a belt of enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies to its north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic profiles to its south. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate by mid to late afternoon. Strong to isolated severe gusts along with small to marginally severe hail are possible. ....Carolinas... Yet another shortwave impulse rotating through the base of the persistent longwave trough over the East should aid in mid-afternoon storm development east of the southern Appalachians. Buoyancy will be weak amid marginal mid-level lapse rates and low-level westerlies. But steep low-level lapse rates coupled with sufficient speed shear should yield a few transient/weak supercell to multicell structures as convection develops off the higher terrain and along a quasi-stationary front into the evening. Small to marginally severe hail may develop in initial cores. This would aid in downdrafts producing strong surface gusts capable of isolated damaging winds. ...Grams.. 05/31/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .