Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri May 30 2025 09:16:00 ACUS02 KWNS 300537 SWODY2 SPC AC 300535 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Kansas to northwest Texas and across the Lower Mid-Atlantic States into North Carolina, mainly during the afternoon to evening Saturday. Isolated damaging winds are also possible over south Florida from late morning into the afternoon. ....KS to northwest TX... Sufficient confidence exists to warrant a severe area delineation. Overall setup should support isolated severe hail and wind from late afternoon into mid-evening. A compact shortwave impulse will move south-southeast from the northern into the central Great Plains on Saturday. This will aid in increasing large-scale ascent, favorably timed with peak diurnal heating across KS into OK. While rich Gulf moisture will remain confined to south TX, evapotranspiration should be adequate to yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest away from the immediate influence of the impulse, and this will broadly curtail updraft strength to an extent. But weak low-level southerlies veering to at least moderate mid-level northwesterlies should yield a favorable deep-layer shear profile for a few organized cells. The confined buoyancy plume will likely yield a diminishing severe threat as convection spreads south-southeast after dusk. ....Lower Mid-Atlantic States to NC... Overall setup is expected to yield sporadic damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail. Have broadened the level 1-MRGL risk to account for potential convective development emanating east from the lee of the southern/central Appalachians. In the wake of extensive convection on D1, persistent low-level west to west-northwesterlies should yield substantially lower mean-mixing ratios by Saturday afternoon. However, both steep low to mid-level lapse rates are expected from VA northward beneath the eastern CONUS trough. This should be adequate for weak MLCAPE. Another shortwave impulse digging through the base of the trough should aid in isolated to perhaps scattered lower-topped storms by afternoon. Guidance does differ markedly with the degree of residual low-level moisture and overall convective coverage amid weak low-level convergence. Strong low to mid-level flow will be more pronounced with southern extent into NC, but this is where sustained convective development becomes more uncertain. ....South FL... Convection should be ongoing across the central FL Peninsula at 12Z Saturday ahead of a surface cold front shifting south and weak mid-level height falls along the peripheral influence of the broad trough over the East. Although mid-level lapse rates will be weak ahead of morning storms, downstream boundary-layer heating should support moderate buoyancy. With moderate mid-level westerlies, multicell clusters may spread across south FL into the afternoon. Isolated strong to marginally severe gusts are possible. ...Grams.. 05/30/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .