Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed May 28 2025 08:10:00 ACUS01 KWNS 281242 SWODY1 SPC AC 281240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes should occur today across parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur across portions of the Gulf Coast/Southeast. ....Eastern Colorado into Kansas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and Western Oklahoma... A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across eastern CO into southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandles by mid afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should initiate across eastern CO/southwest NE and vicinity by 18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the developing warm sector. Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time, a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern KS into northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles, with a greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow zone across southwest KS and vicinity where low-level shear should be maximized along a warm front late this afternoon/early evening, especially if a semi-discrete mode can be maintained. ....Western North Texas into North/Central Texas... A remnant MCV over west TX will drift slowly eastward today towards north/central TX. While convection occurred yesterday and is still ongoing this morning across parts of this region, it appears likely that at least some destabilization will occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front draped generally west to east over central TX. Most high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by 18-20Z in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally east-southeastward into central TX before eventually weakening. A tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly enhanced the by MCV. Based on recent guidance trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded southeastward to include more of central TX. ....Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico... This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west TX, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe Mountains and vicinity. Hail/wind may occur with any of the stronger cores that can be sustained. Have maintained the Slight Risk for hail over parts of this area. But, confidence in overall severe thunderstorm coverage is low, as low-level upslope flow is forecast to be weaker compared to yesterday. ....Deep South Texas... With an unstable airmass remaining in place across deep south TX, a small cluster of thunderstorms near the lower TX Coast may continue to pose a severe/damaging wind threat for another hour or two this morning before moving offshore. ....Middle/Upper Texas Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A broad and rather unfocused zone of marginal/isolated severe potential remains apparent downstream of ongoing convection this morning across the middle TX Coast and central TX vicinity. A weak/convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will advance northeastward from central/east TX across parts of the lower MS Valley through the afternoon and evening. As modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature overspreads a gradually destabilizing warm sector, a band of convection may develop across LA/MS with some risk for hail and damaging winds. Severe potential across the remainder of the Southeast along/near a stalled front is even less clear owing to weak large-scale forcing. Still, a conditional threat for strong/gusty winds may exist with any convection that can form through peak afternoon heating as low-level lapse rates slowly steepen. ...Gleason/Leitman.. 05/28/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .