Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue May 27 2025 08:07:00 ACUS01 KWNS 271204 SWODY1 SPC AC 271202 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ....Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ....Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ....Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ...Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .