Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri May 23 2025 07:18:00 ACUS02 KWNS 230602 SWODY2 SPC AC 230601 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains and western Ozarks on Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter could also occur. Marginally severe storms will also be possible across parts of the central High Plains, and Southeast. ....Southern and Central Plains... At mid-levels, a low will move slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as a ridge moves eastward across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a low will remain over west Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass extending from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Elevated convection is forecast over part of the southern Plains and Ozarks Saturday morning, but this convection should move southeastward during the day, allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop over parts of Oklahoma and north Texas by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during the late afternoon within this maximum of instability. Some of the storms could be severe. Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will develop by Saturday afternoon across parts of southwest and central Oklahoma. ECMWF and NAM forecast soundings near the expected maximum of instability increase MLCAPE into the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 9 C/km. This thermodynamic environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells that form in the late afternoon. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. As a low-level jet strengthens across central Oklahoma, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity to over 400 m2/s2. This suggest an isolated tornado threat will be possible with the more dominant supercells. A wind-damage threat should also develop. A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to move eastward toward the Ozarks during the evening. ....Southern and Central High Plains... A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Rockies and High Plains on Saturday. The western edge of a moist airmass will be in place from west Texas north-northwestward into eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, cells will initiate in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado and in eastern New Mexico. This convection will spread eastward into the High Plains. The environment over the southern and central High Plains is forecast to have steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This, along with sufficient instability, should be enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. ....Southeast... West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast over the southeastern U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place, with dewpoints in the upper 60 to lower 70s F. As instability increases during the day, isolated thunderstorm development is expected along corridors of enhanced low-level convergence. Although forcing will be weak, enough directional shear in the low to mid-levels should exist for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Broyles.. 05/23/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .