Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri May 23 2025 07:17:00 ACUS01 KWNS 230538 SWODY1 SPC AC 230536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains later today, with large hail and severe gusts the main threats. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Florida. ....Central/Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period with ridging forecast to extend across the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Even so, latest model guidance and satellite imagery suggest a few weak disturbances will translate through this ridge then dig southeast toward the Ozarks region of southern MO/northern AR. Each of these features should encourage an increased response to the LLJ. Early in the period, LLJ should be focused primarily across the central High Plains, but gradually sag south and concentrate from northwest TX into northern AR by 24/12z. Latest thinking is each weak disturbance will prove somewhat influential in aiding robust convection along a warm-advection corridor that will extend from western NE into the Ozarks. LLJ will aid upscale growth and one or more thunderstorm clusters/MCSs will likely traverse this zone. It's not entirely clear how each complex will evolve, but some supercell risk will be noted, especially across the High Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Very large hail may accompany the supercell structures, otherwise wind/hail are possible with these clusters. Severe threat will likely continue well into the overnight hours as convection should remain favorably sheared within an environment of steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy. ....South Florida... Seasonally cool mid-level temperatures, and modestly steep lapse rates, will persist across the Florida Peninsula again today. Forecast soundings suggest ample deep-layer flow and high PW will be available for robust convection. Solenoidal influences will once again prove instrumental in a few strong storms capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail. ...Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .