Subj : Heavy Rain/Flood KS/MO/IA
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon May 19 2025 16:08:00

AWUS01 KWNH 192048
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-200047-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0289
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...eastern KS into northwest MO and far southern central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192047Z - 200047Z

Summary...Continued 1-2" hourly totals likely to train over the
same areas, resulting in short-term (3-4 hour) rainfall totals of
3-5". Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Clusters of thunderstorms have rapidly developed and
organized across eastern KS into northwest MO this afternoon,
within an area of strong warm air advection (along a warm front
and extending well into the warm sector of an associated cyclone).
The mesoscale environment is characterized by MUCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.8 inches (between the 90th percentile and
daily max record, per TOP sounding climatology), and (equally
anomolous) deep layer (0-6 km) shear of 50-60 kts. Storms are fast
moving in this environment (generally following the 850-300 mb
flow of 40-50 kts towards the NNE), but the tendency to orient
parallel to the mean flow is resulting in highly efficient hourly
rainfall totals of 1-2" (per MRMS estimates). Continued training
of these efficient cells is likely, resulting in localized
short-term (3-4 hour) totals of 3-5" (and supported by 12z HREF
40-km neighborhood probabilities of 20-40% for 3-hr 3" exceedance
through 00z). Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40809422 40649294 38399355 37369473 37629577 
            38789555 40049494 
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