Subj : Severe Threat NE/KS
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon May 19 2025 16:07:00

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 192012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192012 
MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0881
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska to northeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 293...294...

Valid 192012Z - 192215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 293, 294 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe wind, and tornadoes
continues across southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas, though a
couple of localized corridors of higher tornado potential are
becoming apparent.

DISCUSSION...Convection developing along a cold front/confluence
axis across southeast NE continues to intensify, and a few cells
have begun to show signs of persistent mid-level rotation based on
KUEX velocity imagery. Additional cells continue to develop along
the boundary, so storm coverage is expected to increase over the
next 1-2 hours.  Ambient vorticity along the strongly confluent
boundary coupled with strong, organizing updrafts deepening atop the
boundary should support a tornado threat for the next few hours,
though tornado strength/longevity may be modulated by destructive
storm interactions. Regardless, a large hail threat will continue
with 1 inch hail recently reported. 

Further southeast into northeast KS, deep convection is developing
along the dryline per GOES imagery and latest lightning data.
Modifying an 18 UTC OAX sounding based on warm sector observations
suggests that sufficient buoyancy and low-level helicity is in place
to support STP values up to 2 downstream of the developing storms.
Strong cross-boundary flow should promote supercellular storm modes
with a strong tornado and very large hail threat for the next couple
of hours along the KS/NE border.

...Moore.. 05/19/2025

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39049688 39759719 40159748 40509797 40679812 41019816
            41659808 41859787 41929745 41829693 41549639 41229606
            40799585 40409571 39689567 39369586 39199614 39059655
            39049688 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN

$$
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