Subj : Severe Threat AR/MS
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun May 18 2025 08:13:00

ACUS11 KWNS 181157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181156 
MSZ000-ARZ000-181400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...central Arkansas and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

Valid 181156Z - 181400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284 continues.

SUMMARY...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms, with a history of
producing wind damage, continues to move through central Arkansas.
The overall environment should continue to support a severe threat
ahead of this MCS through at least mid morning.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived linear MCS, with a history of producing wind
damage, continues to move east-southeast through much of Arkansas
this morning. This MCS is moving along a west-northwest to
east-southeast CAPE gradient stretching from northeast Oklahoma into
southern Georgia and is following a similar path as to an earlier
MCS from last evening into earlier this morning. 

The overall large-scale environment will continue to support
maintenance of this MCS as the MCS has access to MUCAPE greater than
2000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. The organization of
the MCS, the overall favorable environment,and knowledge that the
earlier MCS traversed a similar environment and is continuing
through Alabama supports the severe threat through the morning. A
downstream watch may become necessary for portions of far eastern
Arkansas and northern Mississippi as the MCS approaches the edge of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #284.

...Marsh.. 05/18/2025

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35469280 34228896 33228915 34329338 35469280 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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