Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Apr 24 2025 08:15:00 ACUS02 KWNS 240521 SWODY2 SPC AC 240520 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ....Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ....OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ...Leitman.. 04/24/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .