Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Plains To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 07:55:00 ACUS01 KWNS 231244 SWODY1 SPC AC 231242 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ....Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ....Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ....Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ...Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .