Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Apr 23 2025 07:55:00 ACUS02 KWNS 230522 SWODY2 SPC AC 230520 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ....Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ...Leitman.. 04/23/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .