Subj : Severe Threat AR/MO/IL Continues To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Apr 20 2025 18:28:41 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN ACUS11 KWNS 202208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202207=20 TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-202300- Mesoscale Discussion 0505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 154... Valid 202207Z - 202300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue east across Arkansas this afternoon and evening. The low-level environment will remain supportive of tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed across eastern Arkansas -- to the east of the existing watch -- within the hour. DISCUSSION...A mixed-mode (linear segments and discrete cells) line of thunderstorms continues to move east across Arkansas this afternoon. The environment along and ahead of these storms is characterized by 100-mb mixed-layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective-layer shear around 50-60 knots. Additionally, the Little Rock VAD depicts strong low-level curvature with 0-1 km SRH averaging around 180-190 m2/s2 over the last hour. Discrete thunderstorms moving from southwest Arkansas toward central Arkansas have shown increasing organization/mid-level rotation, with broadcast media reporting a tornado recently in Garland County.=20 This environment should evolve east across the state this evening, supporting a continued tornado threat east of the ongoing tornado watch. With Tornado Watch 154 scheduled to expire by 00 UTC / 7 PM CDT, a new tornado watch for portions of central and eastern Arkansas will likely be needed within the hour. ...Marsh/Guyer.. 04/20/2025 ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV... LAT...LON 36309300 36529184 36399031 35858986 34309047 34299051 33299101 32979137 32899293 33049390 33949373 36309300=20 *** ACUS11 KWNS 202240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202240=20 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210015- Mesoscale Discussion 0506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0540 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Missouri into western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 154...155... Valid 202240Z - 210015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 154, 155 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 154-155. Severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A pronounced QLCS has matured over the last several hours given increased deep-layer ascent with a strengthening surface cyclone. Several damaging/severe gusts have been observed (including measured gusts exceeding 55 kts in spots), along with multiple possible tornadoes. Ahead of the QLCS, a 60 kt southerly low-level jet persists per 21Z mesoanalysis, providing ample momentum for downward transport of strong to severe winds to the surface, supporting the potential for damaging gusts. Strong low-level shear remains in place, so a QLCS tornado threat remains with any mesovortices that develop. Currently, two predominant segments of the QLCS present a locally higher damaging gust/tornado threat given the prevalence of ongoing mesovortices. ...Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 36659273 38339276 39109269 40499223 41089173 41199058 40919008 40188970 39528964 38808974 37989021 37359058 36929090 36659125 36549158 36579237 36659273=20 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .