Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk TX into MO To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Apr 18 2025 09:35:00 ACUS02 KWNS 180542 SWODY2 SPC AC 180540 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ....Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ....OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ....TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ...Leitman.. 04/18/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .