Subj : DAY3 2/5 Risk TX to MO To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Apr 17 2025 08:10:00 ACUS03 KWNS 170722 SWODY3 SPC AC 170721 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ....Southern Plains to southern MO... An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day. Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after 00z. ....Ohio Valley... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning and afternoon hours. ...Leitman.. 04/17/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .