Subj : TROPDISC: Tropical Weathe To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Apr 11 2025 09:17:00 721 AXNT20 KNHC 111006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Apr 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from near 08N13W to 04N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 08N and E of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near 27N91W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are observed on the periphery of the high pressure. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in these areas. Gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is observed at this time. Areas of smoke due to agricultural fires onshore are noted off Tampico in the western Gulf. For the forecast, tranquil weather will prevail through this morning. A weak cold front will move through the E Gulf this afternoon through Sat. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front over the NE Gulf tonight into Sat before diminishing. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with moderate to fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and Mon before diminishing. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Jamaica, then a trough continues from that point to 12N82W. Drier air is noted west of the front/trough. Moderate to fresh N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted west of the front. Moderate to fresh E trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over the eastern Caribbean. Broad upper troughing across the northwest Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off Colombia and eastern Panama. For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong N winds will persist off Nicaragua through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend before strengthening early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from west of Bermuda to E Cuba. West of the front, 5 to 7 ft seas and moderate to fresh NE winds are noted. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to N winds and 8 to 9 ft N swell are noted north of a stationary front along 17N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and are noted elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for 8 to 9 ft seas over the tropical Atlantic south of 15N. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front over western Atlantic will dissipate today. The next cold front will move off the coast of Florida tonight. The front will progress across the forecast waters, followed by fresh W to NW winds north of 29N Sat into Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by early next week. $$ ERA --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .