Subj : Heavy Rain/Flood TN to IN
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Apr 04 2025 18:31:00

AWUS01 KWNH 042113
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...western TN into KY and far southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042108Z - 050210Z

SUMMARY...Brief training of scattered thunderstorms will pose a
possible risk of isolated to widely scattered areas of renewed
flash flooding across saturated soils of western TN into KY and
the OH Valley through 02Z. While storm coverage is a bit
uncertain, rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible if/where
cells are able to repeat/train.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery across the OH
Valley at 21Z showed scattered thunderstorms, some organized
supercells, from western TN into portions of southern KY. The
cells were located along or south of a slow moving warm front
which was analyzed WSW to ENE from the MO Bootheel into southern
KY. While better forcing and thunderstorm coverage was located
well to the west of this region (northeastern TX into southern
MO), sufficient instability, daytime heating, frontal convergence
and subtle/weak remnant boundaries from prior convection were
helping to develop storms south of the front.

Storm motions for most cells should be from the SW to WSW between
30-40 kt, not a major concern for flash flooding and expectations
are for cell coverage to remain scattered through the evening.
However, there is some low-end potential for additional cell
development on the heels of existing cells to set up a window for
short term training from SW to NE. Given the highly sensitive,
saturated soils from 4 to as much as an estimated 10 inches of
rain over the past 48 hours, the potential for another quick 1-2
inches could result in isolated to widely scattered flash flooding
into the evening hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38498606 38478456 37968313 37658271 37178297 
            36518443 36098633 34958869 35098962 35728981 
            36828929 37808796 

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