Subj : TROPDISC: Tropical Weathe To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Apr 01 2025 07:44:00 289 AXNT20 KNHC 011005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ....MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N between 05W and 25W. ....GULF OF MEXICO... A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas. To the SW, the typical thermal trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf. Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are again indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 4 miles. For the forecast, the surface trough prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula with fresh SE to NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of dense fog has developed in the NW Gulf, with visibilities below 1 sm expected at times through the morning hours. A similar pattern is expected tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop tonight across much of the basin west of 85W, as the pressure gradient tightens in the area. Building rough seas are expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of 85W, moderate SE winds tonight will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits. ....CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the 4-6 ft range west of 80W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse tonight offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near-gale force Wed through the weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic. Very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras today, then winds will increase to near-gale force speeds and rough seas develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected across the remainder of the Caribbean through Wed, then widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend. ....ATLANTIC OCEAN... Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the Gulf Stream, mainly between 70W-77W. Farther east, broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1032 mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic near 36N45W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 42W. A cold front is moving through the central Atlantic into the eastern Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 33W and 43W. No significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt or less near the front, however, rough seas in long-period NW swell follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft are present elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough seas will continue through this morning north of 30N well off the coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient strengthens between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure moving through the eastern United States. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. today, and winds behind the front will turn to the W and weaken in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will drift slowly eastward today, and fresh to strong trade winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge, mainly south of 25N. Rough seas will accompany these winds. High pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by Wed. A tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the Caribbean. $$ ERA --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .