Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Mar 20 2025 08:27:00

ACUS01 KWNS 201245
SWODY1
SPC AC 201243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.

....Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon...
A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress
eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this
evening/early tonight.  Only a narrow corridor of low-level
moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only
partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf
and western Atlantic.  There could be sufficient heating and
moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and
convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a
band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC.
While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak
buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities.

...Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025

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