Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Mar 02 2025 09:10:00 FOUS30 KWBC 020842 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 342 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Churchill Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Churchill Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 05 2025 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... A pattern change will bring widespread precipitation to much of the Central and Southeast CONUS, as a cut-off low/upper-level trough and associated surface cyclone progress across the middle portion of the country. QPF maxima are expected across two general regions, near the Mid-South (primarily in associated with precipitation from the broad open warm sector and subsequent cold frontal passage) and much of IA into northern MO (mainly from the pivoting low pressure center as it occludes/matures). While flash flood impact coverage should remain somewhat limited in both areas (low-end Slight risk probabilities) with relatively dry antecedent conditions and a rather progressive storm system motion, the very dynamic nature of the system is likely to bring strong convection with localized totals nearing 2" in a short period (though a portion of the QPF over IA is likely to be in the form of snow on the back-end of the low). Barring any major changes in the forecast strength and progression of the storm system, impacts are likely to be capped at the Slight threshold with better refinement of the areas impacted with the addition of CAM data over the next couple of days. Churchill $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .