Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Feb 21 2025 10:04:00

ACUS01 KWNS 210435
SWODY1
SPC AC 210433

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
through tonight.

....Discussion...
Seasonably cold and/or stable conditions remain prevalent across the
U.S., and models indicate little change through this period.  Deeper
mid-level troughing is forecast to continue to progress away from
the north Atlantic Seaboard, leaving split westerlies in its wake,
downstream of large-scale mid-level ridging building inland of the
Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains.

Within this regime, one short wave perturbation, emerging from the
Great Basin, is forecast to accelerate east of the southern Rockies,
toward the Mid South vicinity, while another digs through the Four
Corners states.  The lead impulse will spread across the slowly
modifying remnants of expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging
initially encompassing much of the nation east of the Rockies, as
well as much of the Gulf Basin.  Downstream  of the trailing
impulse, it appears that a developing southerly return flow will
contribute to moistening off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary
layer.  Across the northwestern Gulf and inland of coastal areas, it
appears that the moisture return will be elevated above a
substantial cold surface-based layer, and beneath relatively warm
and capping layers further aloft.

...Kerr/Halbert.. 02/21/2025

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