Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Feb 16 2025 09:52:00

ACUS01 KWNS 161257
SWODY1
SPC AC 161256

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible
through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina.
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward
into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon.

....Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic...
As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to
Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will
continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and
SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is
present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a
surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly
drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong
low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+
kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations
are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace
appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion
becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent
associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered
severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should
remain possible through about midday given the strength of the
low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more
near-term details.

The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop
a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to
VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak
surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal
Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear
expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of
the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and
perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to
suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from
roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025

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