Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Feb 14 2025 10:07:00

ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely today and tonight.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough over the western CONUS will further
amplify today as it moves over the Southwest and southern/central
Rockies. In association with this feature and related cold mid-level
temperatures, isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of
the southern Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity. But, overall
coverage/intensity of this convection should be limited by meager
low-level moisture.

As a surface low eventually consolidates from the central into
southern High Plains through tonight, low-level moisture will
continue to stream northward across parts of TX and the lower MS
Valley. Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain
modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE should eventually develop
over these areas late this evening into the overnight hours.
Large-scale ascent with the upper trough should generally remain to
the west of this developing warm sector. But, strong low-level warm
advection and related lift should encourage showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06Z across portions of
the Ozarks/Mid-South. Some of these elevated thunderstorms could
produce hail, but this should generally remain sub-severe given the
marginal thermodynamic environment forecast.

...Gleason/Broyles.. 02/14/2025

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