Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jan 25 2025 09:55:00

ACUS01 KWNS 251244
SWODY1
SPC AC 251243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today or tonight.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough
extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal
flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S.  A mid-level
low will evolve over central CA during the period with an
accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to
-28 deg C.  Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few
lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening.
Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of
moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to
weakly destabilize the airmass.  Weak low-level warm/moist advection
will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely
scattered convective development tonight.  The lack of a minor
disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow
suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby
negating a severe hail risk.

...Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025

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