Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jan 19 2025 09:34:00

ACUS01 KWNS 191212
SWODY1
SPC AC 191211

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA....

....SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this
morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a
tornado and locally damaging wind gusts.

....FL...
Fast southwesterly flow aloft is present today across FL, beneath
the subtropical jet.  A surface cold front will slowly sag southward
across the central peninsula, with an associated line of
thunderstorms affecting the region.  The surface air mass has slowly
destabilized overnight with dewpoints near 70F along and south of
the front and MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg.  Model guidance
suggests rather strong low-level winds and favorable vertical shear
this morning, providing support for a few rotating/bowing structures
- capable of locally damaging winds or even a brief tornado.  This
threat will likely diminish by late morning as wind fields slowly
weaken and veer.

...Hart/Wendt.. 01/19/2025

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