Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jan 04 2025 08:36:00

ACUS01 KWNS 041253
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur early Sunday morning across parts
of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper trough over the western CONUS this morning will
translate eastward over the Rockies today, eventually reaching the
southern/central High Plains by early Sunday morning. Low-level mass
response ahead of this trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over
the southern High Plains tonight, with the surface low developing
into central OK by the end of the period. An attendant cold front
will likewise sweep southeastward over the southern Plains tonight.
With only a slow erosion of surface high pressure over the Southeast
today, the northward advance of partially modified Gulf moisture
across parts of central/east TX and the lower MS Valley should
fairly be limited.

The development of appreciable boundary-layer instability to support
surface-based convection still appears likely to be delayed into the
Day 2 period (Sunday). Even so, the presence of weak MUCAPE
(generally 500 J/kg or less) may support isolated lightning with
elevated convection that can develop late tonight into early Sunday
morning in the low-level warm advection regime. This appears most
probable across parts of KS/OK towards the Ozarks and Mid-South.
Forecast instability appears too weak to support a meaningful threat
for severe hail with this activity. Isolated convection may also
approach portions of coastal LA the last few hours of the period
early Sunday morning.

...Gleason/Bentley.. 01/04/2025

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