Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Dec 31 2024 09:27:00

FOUS30 KWBC 310802
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024 - 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025 - 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 02 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 03 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST
OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...

A strong front associated with a compact low will approach and move
into the Pacific coast of Oregon and California late Thursday 
night. IVT values from the GEFS peak at about 600 kg/ms around 12Z 
Friday. While river levels have come down a bit from the recent 
rainfall and atmospheric river event, expected rainfall on Day 
2/Wednesday should bring levels back up and resaturate the soils.
Thus, with this next round Thursday night, the expected 2-4 inches
of rain could still cause isolated instances of flash flooding. 
The front does not have a true connection to the tropics, so this 
round of rain is expected to be of lighter intensity and lesser 
duration than the previous A.R. event.

Wegman
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