Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Dec 12 2024 09:31:00

ACUS02 KWNS 120656
SWODY2
SPC AC 120655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and
ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An
associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward
just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast
NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant
cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and
western KS.

Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level
jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm
sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to
result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the
expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support
small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

...Mosier.. 12/12/2024

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