Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Dec 07 2024 09:50:00

ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is very low.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is
forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward
across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level
southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the
southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level
jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will
likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving
quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into
eastern KY.

Progression of this system will displace it north of the more
favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX
Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection
across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in
elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very
low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to
produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR.
However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe
potential low.

...Mosier.. 12/07/2024

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