Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Dec 03 2024 10:40:00

ACUS01 KWNS 031301
SWODY1
SPC AC 031259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Discussion including South Texas...
A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be
reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough
over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and
cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and
spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas,
weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak
low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further
influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm
advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland
areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional
lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight.
Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the
immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH
and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak,
and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

...Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024

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