Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Dec 03 2024 10:40:00

FOUS30 KWBC 030729
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 03 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 04 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS...

A moist airmass (characterized by 1.4+ inch PW values) will migrate
slowly northwestward through the day along a surface trough located
near the south Texas coast. Convergence along that trough axis
will support areas of deep convection through the day, with
kinematic profiles supporting slow storm motions even as mid-level
flow weakens during the forecast period. Isolated spots of 2-4 inch
rainfall amounts appear possible per latest CAMS in the Marginal
Risk area. Isolated flash flood potential will exist in this
regime.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman
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