Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Nov 19 2024 10:21:00

ACUS01 KWNS 191254
SWODY1
SPC AC 191252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today.

....Central Gulf Coast...
The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs,
will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this
morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into
Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low
to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL
along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed
12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread
pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak
destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon.
Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across
the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near
the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
overall severe threat isolated.

...Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024

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