Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Nov 16 2024 12:26:00

ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough
tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature
will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame,
associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will
contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest.
Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding
the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of
showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related
low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability,
though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential.

...Weinman.. 11/16/2024

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