Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Nov 14 2024 09:29:00

ACUS01 KWNS 141251
SWODY1
SPC AC 141250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North
Carolina this evening/tonight.

....Coastal Carolinas...
A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the
OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this
occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across
the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal
waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain
very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP
runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track.
Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak
boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across
parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based
convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared
environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains
evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still
appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the
Marginal Risk with this update.

...Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024

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