Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Nov 09 2024 09:07:00

ACUS01 KWNS 091226
SWODY1
SPC AC 091224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude
through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near
GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing
westerlies.  The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by
00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow.  Meanwhile, the
NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across
the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land,
while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement.

In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally
moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast
to parts of IA/IN and much of IL.  Effective inflow to convection in
this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and
similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest.  As shear weakens
with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially
south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based
parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail.  By afternoon, the warm
front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE
should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000
J/kg just inland from the coast.  Organized severe potential will be
stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is
sufficient.

...Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024

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