Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Oct 31 2024 09:13:00

ACUS02 KWNS 301728
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally
severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon,
from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana.

....Synopsis...
A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle
Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward
toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the
period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight.  At the surface, an
associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains.  By the end of the
period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas
Coast.

....Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern
Louisiana...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an
advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the
southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas.  With
the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly
northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing
ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly
the Ohio Valley southward.  Meanwhile, weak instability north of the
Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more
favorable kinematics.

Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to
cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to
produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels.
Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours,
after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe
potential is expected.

...Goss.. 10/30/2024

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