Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Sep 11 2024 12:54:00 ACUS01 KWNS 111629 SWODY1 SPC AC 111627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ....Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ....Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .