Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Sep 10 2024 19:16:00 ACUS02 KWNS 101720 SWODY2 SPC AC 101719 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ....Northern Gulf Coast... Francine is forecast to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, with strengthening wind fields overspreading much of the central Gulf Coast states from Wednesday afternoon into the night. Preceding this system, a stationary front will exist roughly parallel to the coast, with the more unstable/tropical moisture to the south. As southerly winds increase east of the cyclone center, this will lift the front north as a warm front, with mid 70s F dewpoints spreading north across southern MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle. Rapidly enlarging hodographs in the vicinity of the warm front may support a zone of tornado potential as bands of cells push northward off the Gulf of Mexico and arc northwestward. Tornado potential on the north side will be limited by the more stable air due to high pressure to the north. ....Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... A strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin, with substantial cooling aloft. A cold front will generally stretch from a low over western MT across central ID and into northern NV during the afternoon, with the strongest heating ahead of the front across NV, UT and western WY. Post frontal rain and a few thunderstorms are likely near the developing cold front early in the day from northern ID into eastern OR, with diurnal convection developing over southeast OR, southwest ID and northern NV. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong given that the primary speed max will dive southeastward across the Sierra. However, cool temperatures aloft may yield small hail, with scattered strong gusts with the larger clusters of storms. Additional marginally severe storms may occur from western MT into northwest WY near the deepening surface trough and aided by very steep lapse rates supporting strong gusts. ...Jewell.. 09/10/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .