Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Sep 01 2024 09:55:00

ACUS02 KWNS 010540
SWODY2
SPC AC 010538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S.
on Monday.

....Discussion...
A progressive long-wave upper trough will continue shifting across
eastern NOAM on Monday, while large-scale ridging expands across the
central and eastern U.S. in its wake.  Farther west, an upper low
near the southwestern Oregon/northwestern California coastal area
will shift inland/eastward with time, devolving into an open wave
with time.

At the surface, a cold front will likely have cleared the New
England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts by Monday morning, and should linger
from the vicinity of the Southern Atlantic Coast westward across the
Gulf Coast area and into Texas.  Meanwhile, high pressure will
prevail east of the Rockies, in the wake of the surface front.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern
U.S. near and ahead of the stalling surface front.  While a couple
of stronger storms may occur during the day in the vicinity of the
Carolinas, the overall risk for severe weather appears limited at
best over the entire southern CONUS.

In the West, meager mixed-layer CAPE atop a deep mixed layer can be
expected across portions of the Oregon/Idaho/western Montana
vicinity and into portions of the Great Basin.  With enhanced flow
aloft ahead of the aforementioned upper short-wave trough, a
stronger storm or two may evolve, with some enhancement convective
downdrafts provided by evaporative potential in the deep
surface-based mixed layer.  However, with only very isolated
thunderstorms anticipated -- coverage of stronger convection appears
insufficient to warrant inclusion of a 5% wind/MRGL risk area at
this time.

...Goss.. 09/01/2024

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