Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Aug 26 2024 09:37:00 ACUS02 KWNS 260607 SWODY2 SPC AC 260606 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ....SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ....Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ...Goss.. 08/26/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .