Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Aug 22 2024 08:39:00

ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High
Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies.

....Central and Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At
the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains,
where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As
temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected
to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the
western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage
remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the
upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the
low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The
moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the
threat should be marginal.

....Intermountain West/Central Rockies...
An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday,
as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A
subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners
region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in
place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah
into western and central Colorado, and northward into western
Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range,
with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also
be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a
marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to
late afternoon.

...Broyles.. 08/22/2024

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