Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Jul 27 2024 09:23:00

ACUS01 KWNS 271245
SWODY1
SPC AC 271243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and
northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening.

....Dakotas and Northern Minnesota...
Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours
across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability
gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with
the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this
afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This
may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level
impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in
the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer
shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent
of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells
and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail,
damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the
surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into
western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though
guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this
regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong
buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of
hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of
the eastern Dakotas this evening.

....Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from
the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as
a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the
central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves
from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple
outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of
at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability
across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western
Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest
storms.

...Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024

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