Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Jul 10 2024 07:20:00

ACUS02 KWNS 100541
SWODY2
SPC AC 100539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
A couple instances of severe gusts or hail are possible over the
central into northern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A couple of
severe gusts are also possible in central and southern Arizona
tomorrow evening.

....Synopsis...
An upper trough will deamplify across the Northeast as a mid-level
anticyclone meanders over the Interior West tomorrow (Thursday). The
overall synoptic pattern favors limited severe potential across the
CONUS, with isolated strong to severe storms possible along the
periphery of the anticyclone across the central/northern High
Plains, and in central to southern Arizona.

....Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow will support widely scattered thunderstorm development
off of the higher terrain along the WY/SD/CO/NE border area by
afternoon peak heating. These thunderstorms will develop amid a
deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb (per latest
forecast soundings), where 7.5-8.5 C/km low- and mid-level lapse
rates will be present. 10-15 kt southeasterly surface winds beneath
20-30 kt 500 mb flow, traversing the periphery of the anticyclone,
will result in slightly curved but elongated hodographs. As such,
the speed shear and steep lapse rates will be adequate in supporting
high-based multicells capable of producing a couple instances of
severe wind gusts and perhaps hail.

....Central and southern Arizona...
By late afternoon or early evening, the combination of strong
surface heating and orographic lift will support thunderstorm
initiation off of the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim. Over 20
kts of northeasterly 500 mb flow will pivot around the south side of
the anticylone, aiding in thunderstorms moving off of the higher
terrain, atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by
8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates. Classic inverted-v forecast
soundings extend up to 600 mb, indicating high-based storms.
Vertical wind shear is not forecast to be overly strong. However,
faster storm motions aided by the stronger flow aloft may prevent
cold pools from quickly undercutting updrafts, allowing for
longer-term convective propagation and associated potential for a
couple of severe gusts.

...Squitieri.. 07/10/2024

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