Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Jul 02 2024 08:31:00

ACUS02 KWNS 020610
SWODY2
SPC AC 020609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across
parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains.

....Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley...
Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air
mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is
likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and
residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions
northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak
height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will
generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts
of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are
probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the
primary hazard through evening.

....High Plains/Central Plains...
Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies
are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level
trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By
mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of
hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south
corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast
Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the
north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains
including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where
deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for
initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe
storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve
from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska.

...Guyer.. 07/02/2024

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