Subj : MESO: Heavy Rain/Flooding To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Apr 26 2024 08:06:00 AWUS01 KWNH 261023 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261530- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0175 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 622 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Far Northern TX...South-Central to Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Far Northwest AR...Southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 261020Z - 261530Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some instances of cell-training may result in areas of flash flooding this morning. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a broken QLCS advancing generally east-northeast across portions of the Red River Valley, with somewhat more disorganized activity noted farther up to the northeast across northeast OK and southeast KS. A shortwave trough continues to cross the region while interacting with a moderately unstable airmass characterized by MUCAPE values of 2000 to 2500+ J/kg, and with a persistently moist south-southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts. Given the level of forcing and instability that is in place, the convective activity should persist through the morning hours and may even locally expand in coverage. Some cell-training will be possible as the convection evolves close to the Red River Valley and up through eastern OK over the next few hours. Rainfall rates are expected to reach as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour given the level of moisture transport and instability focusing across the region. The latest HRRR guidance has been trending wetter and strongly supports the idea of the convection becoming oriented more parallel to the deeper layer southwest steering flow. The HRRR does favor some potential for localized 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals across eastern OK going through late this morning given the cell-training concerns. This may result in some instances of flash flooding as a result across this region. The other concern this morning is also farther northeast up across far southeast KS and into southwest MO where heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours has led to notably moist soil conditions and elevated streamflows at least locally. Some additional broken clusters of convection are expected here with the arrival of the aforementioned shortwave energy, with an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain possible by late morning. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible here as a result. Orrison ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38479407 38079297 36629322 35049410 33859524 33159699 33219861 33599872 34259776 35109704 35949631 36519582 37299536 38119463 = = = --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .