Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk MW
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Mar 30 2024 08:43:00

ACUS02 KWNS 300553
SWODY2
SPC AC 300551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

....SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail,
and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday
and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the
mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

....Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys...
An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the
eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm
front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening
from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most
of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop
further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast
Nebraska during the overnight period.

Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to
central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west
corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This
environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km
will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with
supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined
potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern
Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a
wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may
persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After
midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in
far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep.

...Broyles.. 03/30/2024

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