Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Mar 28 2024 08:23:00 ACUS01 KWNS 281249 SWODY1 SPC AC 281247 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ....Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive, but deamplify temporarily, through the end of the period. This will occur as a strong synoptic-scale trough -- initially extending from northern ON across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf -- pivots preferentially faster eastward in its southern parts. By 12Z tomorrow, the synoptic trough will become negatively tilted from a low over James bay across the NYC area, then to a basal shortwave trough offshore from the Atlantic Coast farther south. That shortwave -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf Coast -- will follow a cold front offshore. Before that, however, a few more hours of general thunder potential are possible over coastal NC, including the sounds and Outer Banks. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over much of the FL Peninsula amid favorable moisture along/ahead of the front, but with coverage limited by modest lift. Mid/upper-level winds and deep shear remain strong across the region, and a few cells moving through a diurnally destabilizing thermodynamic profile inland may produce strong gusts or small hail. Elsewhere, a large mid/upper-level cyclone was centered about 300 nm west of HQM, with synoptic trough extending south-southeastward offshore from the West Coast. As a strengthening shortwave trough south of the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward to west of north- central CA through the period, the cyclone will weaken, but the larger-scale trough will be maintained. Several variably sized/ shaped shortwave perturbations were noted in downstream southwest flow over the Pacific Coast States and Intermountain West. Related large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates, with patches of weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture, will combine to support isolated general-thunder potential over parts of the West. This includes the Northwest Coast, where the cool but moist Pacific marine layer will underlie coldest air aloft. ...Edwards/Leitman.. 03/28/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .